Every year end, or is it quarter end, the pundits/ the 'Experts' come up with their predictions on what they think would be the most significant developments in the Logistics world. And then they come up with a brand new set for the new year - rarely comparing with their hit/miss list for the previous one.
For a change I see one article which has actually tried to compare
http://logisticsviewpoints.com/2015/12/07/arcs-supply-chain-predictions-for-2015-hits-and-misses/
Though what I would like to know if do they go back to improve their methodology of coming up with these forecasts based on their accuracy rate !! I don't think so.
The consultancies will depend on their random online surveys/ questionnaires which are sent across to anyone who cares to fill them out based on their own estimation of how 'Executive' or 'Influential' the surveyors feel. Or in the case of product or services based consultancies, it is the goods they want to sell which determines the trend they see in the market,
In the case of blogs/ groups with smaller budgets their experts just have to pull something out of their .... imaginations. (Though with Survey monkey it doesnt take much to put your own survey out there.
For a change I see one article which has actually tried to comparehttp://logisticsviewpoints.com/2015/12/07/arcs-supply-chain-predictions-for-2015-hits-and-misses/
Though what I would like to know if do they go back to improve their methodology of coming up with these forecasts based on their accuracy rate !! I don't think so.
The consultancies will depend on their random online surveys/ questionnaires which are sent across to anyone who cares to fill them out based on their own estimation of how 'Executive' or 'Influential' the surveyors feel. Or in the case of product or services based consultancies, it is the goods they want to sell which determines the trend they see in the market,
In the case of blogs/ groups with smaller budgets their experts just have to pull something out of their .... imaginations. (Though with Survey monkey it doesnt take much to put your own survey out there.
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